Competing Hypotheses Analysis: Practical Applications

A multinomial-dirichlet model for analysis of competing hypotheses.

Analysis of competing hypothesis, a method for evaluating explanations of observed evidence, is used in numerous fields, including counterterrorism, psychology, and intelligence analysis. We propose a Bayesian extension of the methodology, posing the problem in terms of a multinomial-Dirichlet hierarchical model. The yet-to-be observed true hypothesis is regarded as a multinomial random variabl...

Migration and Fertility: Competing Hypotheses Re-examined

Extending Heuer ’ s Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method to Support Complex Decision Analysis

In this paper, we evaluate the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method using a normative Bayesian probabilistic framework. We describe the ACH method and present an example of how to use it to structure an analytic problem. We then show how to represent the same analytic problem using Bayesian networks and compare the result with that using the ACH method. We discuss how Bayesian networks...

Statistical tests between competing hypotheses of Hox cluster evolution.

The Hox genes encode transcription factors that play vital roles in the anterior-posterior patterning of all bilaterian phyla studied to date. Additionally, the gain of Hox genes by duplication has been widely implicated as a driving force in the evolution of animal body plans. Because of this, reconstructing the evolution of the Hox cluster has been the focus of intense research interest. It h...

Practical Applications of Automated Fault Analysis

This paper describes a new concept of automated fault analysis where fault transients and changes in power system equipment contacts are processed on-line. This allows faster confirmation of correct equipment operation and detection of unexpected equipment operations, as well as increased accuracy of fault location and analysis. The paper discusses two independent utility examples that illustra...